Cyclical stocks is difficult to fund redemption only a small number of fund outperformed the same period in the broader market

was jiacang with the trend, it was waiting to see the disk to be changed

□ newspaper Reporter Tian Lu

and even to tap the growth stocks of well-known investment guru Peter Lynch will be in his book on a single separate chapter devoted to the experiences of the shares of its investment cycle. Cyclical stocks fast and violent, elastic great features, and always has a great allure for investors. A-share market, a market led by the coal, nonferrous metals, financial, chemical cycles plate comebacks interpretation on January 6 this year so far, has accumulated nearly 10 percent of the harvest increase, some industry-specific and stocks rose far beyond this level. Sudden this wave of shock upstream market, part of the direction of the stock fund net jumped quickly. However, the overall data, this time in the active direction of the stock fund performance still lags behind Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, "Ta" cycle stock market into the hearts of a considerable part of fund managers pity. It is understood that some fund managers have closely followed last week the trend jiacang financial and real estate underestimate the value of cycle plate, but part of the cast who worry about the prices of cyclical stocks is almost complete, they are willing to continue "Ta" and to avoid in this subject to more severe losses in the expectations game. They believe that the "cycle of salvation," the decision of a rebound in space and time is limited, if prematurely extension to the middle reaches is a strong cyclical stocks may exist a risk of the fundamentals can not be honored. the

lucky only a few

19.32%! This is a heavily loaded with betting on the stock of coal, nonferrous metals and strong periodic open-end fund net gains from the broader market rally since January 6. Immediately thereafter, there are eight stock fund complex right to the net growth rate during this period reached 11.59 per cent to 14 per cent to overcome the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index over the same period.

but outperformed over the same period the broader market fund does not. According to the statistics of the Wind Information In addition to the index funds, common stock funds, 143 funds in the January 6 to February 10, the net growth rate of 6%, accounting for 48.8% of the proportion of the same period card Composite Index rose 9.47 percent, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 11.3 percent; hybrid funds, four funds rose more than 10%, but overall, only 1/3 of the NAV rose more than 6% . in the round of price since January 6, the strong non-ferrous metals, coal, finance and other periodic plate revealed in SW an industry index of non-ferrous metals and mining industry index since early 2012, to February 10 each rose by 19.98% and 12.66%, Jiangxi Copper, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, February 8, pushed to the limit.

"flying single, moderate to heavy volume, seems a bit out of the meaning of the bear market." an investors who lamented after the close of trading on February 8. Exchange and the China Securities Daily (Confucius News) reporter fund investments have mostly said that the stock market cycle is a strong temptation, few people can not be tempted, but afraid to come and go, in case stumbled while quilt. more bad end. in accordance with the industrys classic view, cyclical stocks investment is similar to "gamble" trend reversal., but the confirmation of the bottom of the often repeated and tortuous process. In this process, the courage and footwork are leading to a necessary condition for success, experience and luck is also quite a lot. In addition, the fund managers personal style also plays an important role.

occupy the leading position in a stock fund in the current round of rebound in 2011 has actually been in an awkward position. The funds head is quite persistent, has always insisted that the "global economic recovery under the excess liquidity in the quarter last year, the report, and grasp the rhythm and point of currency regulation and control" of the investment logic of the current market, while obsessed Energy + Resources + Finance configuration ideas. The end of the third quarter of last year, the Funds equity position has reached a high of nearly 94% of fund managers extractive industries significantly added to a ratio of close to 50% of fund assets, in addition to the financial, insurance as well as metal, nonmetal, were also There are tilt. Under this line of thought, the fourth quarter of 2011, the Fund huge losses, the decline in performance than the 15 percent of the performance benchmarks. However, in last years Four Seasons reported that the fund manager believes that the policy turning point has occurred, from the liquidity indicators in January 2012, the market should gradually into the bottoming out stage.

institutions a better understanding of his personal style, seen through public statements of industry configuration is estimated that these institutions is also more to the bottom of the recognized market, the idea of ​​a rebound with the cyclical stocks Bo, so the end of last year when the purchase of a lot of his funds, these funds may also become a follow-up ammunition for the fund managers, allowing him to continue in the non-ferrous metals, coal jiacang. "an understanding of the industry to the China Securities Journal Reporter disclosed.

At the same time, the China Securities Journal reporter also learned that passive commodity ETFs, as well as some of the leverage effect of stock grading Fund, but also the turn of the year has been the concern of many institutions. Subtle and unpredictable inflection point in the market at the moment, trading tools features of these funds has become increasingly prominent. The many

down "before dawn" According to Peter Lynchs experience, the essence of cyclical stocks is expectations game, and from them to make money hardship, "the greatest danger lies in buying too early, can not wait to rise and throw away". He pointed out that the low price-earnings ratio of a cyclical company, often is a signal of prosperity coming to an end, because the smart investors will sell stocks, but the price decline will make some investors a false impression, for which they will likely pay expensive. any wrong point in time of

this story has been staged in the stock market. Market performance in 2011, construction machinery stocks sharply defeat, give some fund managers lose.

"overly optimistic on market trends forecast, coupled with the high proportion of the configuration of the machinery and other cyclical industries, in the fourth quarter of this fund underperformed the performance benchmark, has brought great losses to investors, fund management people apologize. "the fund manager of a fund company in the fund announced in the New Years Four Seasons reported this frustration that. The quarter, the funds net growth rate of -15.76%, lower than the performance benchmark by 10 percentage points. public information, the stock fund since the late second quarter of last year, re-distribution machinery and equipment stocks, and to maintain the high position the operation of radical practices led to the second half of 2011 performance of "Waterloo". The proportion of the fund of the top ten in the third quarter of Awkwardness throughout the Weichai Liugong, Hill pushed shares in the re subjects such as the former star stock, machinery, equipment, instrumentation stocks accounted for the net assets of the Fund is now approaching 40 into the stock position is close to 90%.

market-expected sharp decline in the third quarter of last year, the main features of the various types of plates are all scattered hovering prematurely involved in cyclical stocks the fund any wrong-paced first step, because from the industry configuration, incorrectly re-fund managers with such as "down the mountain stone" like construction machinery stocks fall, the fund suffered a heavy blow. Even the financial and insurance stocks, and underestimate the value and non-strong cycle factors into the fourth quarter when such stocks basically been stabilized. However, the machinery stocks following the overall decline of 17.6 percent in the third quarter, fourth quarter of last year, again a decrease of 16.91%.

perhaps, at this moment, need a strong will and determination, the hands of a lot of machinery stock price almost cut from the dawn after the tragic decline may have been only one step away. However, the individual stick, after all, difficult to fund losses that each company can be tolerated is not the same short, the fund fell to the "before dawn". Four Seasons disclosed, the last three months of 2011, fund managers, machinery, household appliances, automotive, construction, and other cyclical industries lighten, while the funds stock positions fell to 68.73%.

"Obviously, lighten up, not a coup, the previous hard work and perseverance have been wasted, not much advantage in this years rally, it in fact is some of the funds in the fourth quarter began Masukura financial, real estate and shares of a number of cycles. "an industry insider heard the above story, could not help but shake their heads.

difficult to grasp go

"sinister, it is difficult to grasp, the elasticity is too large, this is the view of some in the industry for investment in cyclical stocks. Some people told the China Securities Journal reporter, Do not look at fund manager for the economic situation, monetary policy trends can speak clearly and logically, in fact, easier said than done, a degree of investment in cyclical stocks retreat, and the gains in income, not many people . Moreover, in nearly two years of a bear market, the brain drain phenomenon is not uncommon, some masters may have been transferred to private or a broker and information management field. On the other hand, for the comprehensive consideration of the A-share markets overall style and economies in transition, some fund managers began to lose interest in the industry wheeled "investment approach, turn to the selection of individual stocks and to maintain the operation of the high position of the investment.

"will certainly be involved, I think some positions also leave room for the fund, a week or two may buy real estate, coal and the like to conform with the trend to do one, but they will be more cautious and will consider this round of market there is much space. "a fund investment research who says. from the performance of the net direction of the stock fund of nearly two weeks, as of last weekend, part of the fund since January 6, net gains, compared to a week ago, has improved by 2-3 percentage points. It is speculated that within the last week, there should be a part of the fund at full speed to join the "Running" cyclical stocks.

However, there was a fund investment research who told the China Securities Journal reporter, according to his intuition, the current round of market may be nearing completion. Reverse market for medium-and long-term perspective from some fund companies to disclose market judgment is not recognized. ABC-CA Fund believes that the current rally is expected to continue until early March. The company noted that, due to the small and medium enterprises to return to work after the fifteenth day will have been incidents, raw materials make up the current stock market will not be immediately falsification; recovery in demand is less than the optimistic expectations of the market is expected in March inventory pressure will appear. In addition, the South a large fund companies image in the recent round of price depicted as the "cycle of salvation" in its policy analysis, they believe that as early as cycle configuration is essentially a defensive behavior, because these plates have been earlier than downstream consumption adjustment. Cycle redemption bounce space and time is limited, if prematurely extension to the middle reaches is a strong cyclical stocks may exist a risk of the fundamentals can not be honored. the

when it comes to the part of the fund "Ta" market, an industry source said, cyclical stocks investment risk, its contribution to the performance of the Fund is now a conclusion is still too early. He believes that investors purchase fund should be more to consider the configuration from the financial point of view, the pursuit of a reasonable rate of return, similar to 2007 as astonishing rate of return is difficult to reproduce; can form a good atmosphere, the fund manager by smaller, the pressure will also reduce the number of people "bet", will focus more on painstaking research company, a reasonable participation in the band trend up.