Fund quarter jiacang cautious configuration seek steady

all the Paul Fund Research Center, Liao handsome / text 2011 Fund Four Seasons reported in

: jiacang cautious configuration seek sound

- Four Seasons reported that interpretation of an open initiative to partial stock funds

one, major categories of configurations: cautious creeping jiacang Four Seasons reported data according to the active partial stock funds in 2011, in the fourth quarter of the market volatility down, the market valuation of blue-chip sector gradually return to historically low various types of funds selected the slightly jiacang, the majority of base positions change not large, the average stock position is still lower than the mean since 2009. Open partial shares of the initiative, the open-active stock, open-hybrid, traditional base closure in the fourth quarter, the average stock position is 76.48%, 81.08%, 68.82%, 71.70%, compared with the third quarter, an increase of 0.88%, 0.75% , 0.75%, 0.76%, respectively, lower than the stock position since 2009 mean of 1.00%, 1.76%, 1.78%, 0.55%. take the initiative

partial stock funds overall slightly jiacang, but the stock position is still lower than the 2009 mean that raised funds in domestic and international economic situation more severe background of investment mentality still more cautious, but inflationary pressures are greatly reduced, after a continuous decline in the market, cap blue chip plate valuation return to historic lows, the A-share market value of the investment or have been recognized, tension eased in the agencies.

Figure 1: Active partial stock fund stock positions (unit:%) Open active partial stock funds stock positionsOpen active equity fund stock positionsOpen mixed-stock positionsTraditional base closure stock positions

data sources: the Wind all the Paul Fund Research Center

from the fund company point of view view

from mutual fund companies, announced the 2011 Four Seasons reported an open initiative to partial stock funds stock positions mean, a total of 25 fund companies

(1) static view, the 62 fund companies, the average positions of ≥ 80%, accounting for 40.32%; 80% of the average positions of ≥ 70% of the fund company a total of 30, accounting for 48.39 %; 70% of the average positions of the fund company a total of seven, accounting for 11.29%.

Figure 2: The fund companys initiative to partial stock funds stock positions the mean distribution Figure 2: Mean Distribution of mutual fund companies take the initiative to partial stock funds stock positions

data sources: the Wind all the Paul Fund Research Center The average positions of

the highest level of Xinhua Fund (Confucius News) (86.56%), ABC-CA Fund (86.16%), Central European Fund (the Confucius News) (85.91%). The Xinhua

Fund believes that the situation improves, panic fell in the valuation level of support is giving birth to the opportunity to rebound in inflation has steadily declined, the economy is beginning to bottom signs of stabilization, monetary policy is loose from tight turn, liquidity context of gradual improvement in the first half of 2012 will usher in a "rebound" in the stock market.

lowest average position the Jinyuan KBC Fund (60.85%), Galaxy Fund (Confucius News) (62.07%), large the Moji gold (63.74%).

Jinyuan KBC believes that 2012 will remain a complex and volatile, full of uncertainty, Europe and the United States economy is experiencing a downturn since the 2008 subprime crisis stage, the profitability of listed companies are expected to fall may be larger A-share market is difficult to have better performance, the aforementioned difficulties, the capital market is expected to be fully reaction in some industries, while in another part of the industry response has not yet reached the full extent of the theoretically, and this is expected reaction imbalance in 2012 will be re-balanced to a certain extent; the first quarter of 2012 the overall stock market performance is cautious, but we believe the valuation of financial, real estate, blue chip level is already very low, which makes Shanghai Composite downlink space is limited. (2) Dynamic

see, 40 of the 62 fund companies, select a jiacang, accounting for 64.52% and jiacang intensity of more than small; the remaining 22 chose to lighten up a small, accounting for 35.48%.

Figure 3: The fund company and lighten up the proportion of distribution Figure 3: The fund company plus-lighten the proportional distribution

data sources: the Wind all the Paul Fund Research Center

average more than 10% of the jiacang by Zhejiang Fund (+38.60%), cross the Silver Fund (+11.56%), Hua Tai Bairui Fund (Confucius News) (+10.28%), Hua An Fund (Confucius News) ( +10.17%). The Zheshang of

Fund believes that the context of the policy fine-tuning, continued to tighten liquidity situation eased, M1/M2 year-on-year growth rebounded in December, the effect of fine-tuning is slowly emerging, although such changes may be slow, but the mobility of bottoming out, the economy bottomed out about the probability of occurrence is greatly increased;, systemic risk has been a good release after the market fell sharply, although Chinas economy is the obvious structural problems, but economies, an increase of 8%, in 2012 less than 10 times price-earnings ratio of the market as a whole should be able to face a more positive frame of mind. The average

lighten the intensity of the first three of the national wealth funds (-8.64%), Jin and Yuan KBC Fund (-8.12%), ten thousand funds (-7.84%).

The Wealth of Nations Foundation that the real economy, liquidity is expected to gradually ease, thus promoting the shock of the stock market stabilized, the economic fundamentals, the next quarter will maintain a continuing downward trend in the longer term, Chinas economic growth rate of decline in the background economic structure of a smooth transformation, there are still great uncertainty, which will limit the upside of the stock market, capital market, the overall macro environment is not very favorable, and gradually increase the pressure of institutional change of the stock market also makes the market environment more complex, and therefore remain cautious on the market.

from a base point of view

announced in 2011, look at the Four Seasons reported an open initiative to partial stock funds stock positions: static look

(1), 438 funds, the stock position ≥ 90% of the fund totaled 63, accounting for 14.38 percent, an increase of six over the previous period; 90%> stock positions ≥ 80% of the Fund for a total of 154 accounting for 35.16 percent, an increase of 15 over the previous period; 80%> 118 ≥ 70% of funds in the stock position, accounting for 26.94%, a decrease of one compared to the previous period; 70%> 103 fund in the stock position, accounting for 23.52 %, a decrease of 20% over the previous period. The level of the Funds position central uplift has.

Figure 4: Active partial stock funds stock position distribution Figure 4: Active partial stock funds stock position distribution

data sources: the Wind all the Paul Fund Research Center initiative

stock funds, stock positions, the highest level: the National Investment UBS Redford (95.91%), the Celestica cycle strategy (94.87%), Everbright Pramerica core (94.63%).

hybrid funds, the stock position of the highest level: the rich Tianhui (93.80%), JP Morgan China Advantage (93.71%), Wells Fargo the Skyray strong selection (93.39%).

SDIC UBS Redford Outlook 2012 1-2 quarter January-April is the annual credit to put in the peak period, 3-April is a listed company annual reports, quarterly disclosure of the peak of the favorable factors is 12 years quarter of mobility ring to improve the unfavorable factors to the fourth quarter of 11 years and 12 years, first quarter non-financial corporate earnings decline, we believe the market is difficult to appear the trend of rising prices, but after the early rapid decline in the market has been to enter the relative safety of the investment region. The market has stabilized rebound of the stock market may appear years later.

the rich days of benefits, the growth of medium-and long-term real economy is not pessimistic, the future of Chinas potential growth will indeed slow downstream, but still have a higher absolute growth; stand at this point in time to look back, The market has been reflected in part the risk of short-term slowdown of economic growth, the relative attractiveness of the valuation has been significantly improved, style rotation investment opportunities will be more difficult to grasp, we will more focus on individual stock selection above ; have confidence in Chinas economic recovery and long-term growth potential, but also recognized the complexity of the current round of global economic adjustment policy is still higher to the uncertainty of future market volatility will remain at the higher level; individual stock selection level, preference for investment in the Fund has a good "business gene", improve the corporate governance structure, excellent management of enterprises, such enterprises have a greater probability of high-quality growth in the coming years; share enterprises own capital markets revenue growth has been the best way to get the benefit of growth fund; in the operation of the Fund, the RMB exchange rate reform, the government-led investment direction, urbanization, and upgrade the industrial structure of the market and long-term The impact of investment themes has always been in the building and the adjustment process of the portfolio. initiative

stock funds, the lowest level of the stock position: Galaxy consumer-driven (45.22%), Jin and Yuan KBC value growth (60.81%), 10,000 utilities (61.06%). hybrid funds in

stock positions, the lowest level of mixed funds are partial debt: Shen Ling letter (Confucius News) Sheng Li configuration (1.61%), Galaxy Income (6.20%), Hing convertible bonds (17.57% ). Jinyuan

KBC value growth on the capital market in 2012 will continue to be complex and volatile, full of uncertainty; the worlds major economic role in boosting the overall economy, including Chinas economy can not be reported unrealistic expectations, it is up to each other is not serious drag; China itself will face tremendous challenges in the power gradually lost, and economic transformation of the traditional model of economic growth is slow; capital markets, adequate response to the aforementioned difficulties is expected to be in some industries reaction in another part of the industry have not yet reached the full extent of theoretically and this imbalance between the expected response in 2012 to get a certain degree of balance; other words, we believe that the bank, food The blue chip blue chip drinks, etc., represented by its valuation has entered a range of investment values ​​and opportunities, the next valuation will be reasonable upward trend, on the other hand, part of the performance of growing uncertainty, even more likely to appear decline in performance, while its valuation is still relatively high stock will be subject to greater downward pressure; Looking to the future, we are optimistic about the banking, food and beverage, pharmaceutical, tourism, communications technology, retail industry, we believe that valuation in the relative history The low real estate, building materials, energy and other industries are also likely to be stage investment opportunities in the long run, the most lucrative return on investment opportunities should appear in the high-growth stocks, especially in line with economies in transition characteristics of the industry such as new materials, new energy and environmental protection industries, as well as the active use of innovative business models, companies will become high-growth stocks of the largest breeding source. configuration

Shen Wan Ling letter Sheng Lee, the first quarter of 2012, due to the gradual relaxation of inflation expectations, the overall slowdown in the trend of monetary policy, but basically completed in the value of the bonds a reasonable return to the equity market in a substantial adjustment in the reality of loose monetary policy rate and extent will have a greater impact on the securities market; from the fixed income markets, the safety factor higher interest rate debt and high-grade credit debt, credit debt of the low rating because the future supply of large quantity and future monetary policy loose degree of uncertainty in the short term is still difficult to obtain a more significant capital gains, the proceeds of such bonds or to holders of the interest income for the period. For the equity market, due to the external environment is not stable, the market expectations for the economic outlook there are differences, so the short term or should adopt a more cautious approach. (2) Dynamic

of view, 438 funds, 238 funds to varying degrees Opening, accounting for 54.34%, and 200 funds to varying degrees, to lighten up, accounting for 45.66%. Among them, more than 20% of the jiacang Fund total of 18, accounting for 4.10%; jiacang more than 10% of the fund a total of 48, accounting for 10.95%; lighten up over 20% of the Fund for a total of four, accounting for 0.91 percent, to lighten up More than 10% of the Fund for a total of 22, accounting for 5.02%.

Figure 5: Ji Jinjia lighten up the proportion of active partial stock distribution Figure 5: Active Ji Jinjia lighten up the proportion of partial stock distribution

of them,

jiacang intensity of ≥ 20%: 18 only, 4.10%

jiacang intensity of ≥ 10%: only 48, 10.95%

lighten the intensity of ≥ 10%: 22 only, 5.02%

lighten the intensity of ≥ 20%: only 0.91%

data sources: the Wind all the Paul Fund Research Center initiative

stock funds, Opening up to: Prudential new opportunities (+52.09%), fengjinxin Technology Pioneer (+46.04%), Bank of Advanced Manufacturing (+45.05%). hybrid funds in

jiacang: South optimal growth (+25.44%), Bank of Topic Selection (+21.59%), Oriental Collection (+21.08%). Prudential

new opportunities that 2012 will be complex and fraught with uncertainty; from an international perspective, along with the debt service peak in February and March next year, the arrival of the latest changes in the European debt situation is bound to affect the capital market nerve; from domestic monetary policy and industry regulation policy heading, there are enormous uncertainties; capital market performance depends on the tempo and intensity of macroeconomic recovery is expected to change and policy relaxation, if the policy is only a slow turn. The market may remain weak, to enter a stage of shock bottoms; But what is certain is that the overall market valuation in a reasonable low level of financial, real estate, energy and the weight of industry valuations near historic lows, market does not fell sharply space; under the current international situation, economic policy and market views, we believe that economic restructuring is still the general direction of the emerging strategic industries, consumer goods industry is still a large room for growth in the long term, and we are optimistic about the The 12th Five-stage investment opportunities for the future, with Chinas new model of economic growth and new economic development trends in the factors of change, the Fund will continue to dig deeper into more valuable investment opportunities.

the South preferred growth of the view that central banks lowered deposit reserve ratio move in early December, has marked the lasted nearly a year of tight monetary policy began to shift to a moderately easy to maintain steady economic growth in the case of inflation downward trend established will be the next phase of one of the main policy objectives; the A-share market in the current low valuation levels is expected to usher in a one to two quarters relatively lenient policy and funding environment; in the context of the overall economic downturn, the earnings drive angle to select stocks there are considerable difficulties, and therefore we prefer victimizes the consumer from the point of view of valuation-driven select stocks and growth stocks valuation flexible scientific and technological innovation. initiative

stock funds, to lighten up the most: GF Small Cap Growth (-28.59%) elastic market value (-26.15%), The Wealth of Nations, The Wealth of Nations deepen the value of (-23.27%). hybrid funds in

lighten up to: GF domestic demand growth (-15.66%), the Jinyuan KBC gem power (-15.04%), sea energy strategy (-14.59%).

GF small cap growth that Chinas future economic growth will continue to slow down; short term, you need to pay close attention to the credit of 2012 put the number and the tempo of this is largely decided by the performance of the stock market from listing look at the corporate level, 2012 will experience a systematic ROE decline, the middle reaches of the manufacturing sector was more obvious in the medium term, China will inevitably experience the transformation process, although this process may be long and tortuous, but the transformation of our medium-term success remains to have a strong faith; a substantial adjustment in the market, the current market valuation is more reasonable, but the structural differentiation is still more obvious in the next quarter, we are optimistic about the high interest rates of banks, coal Rate combination down to the valuation attractive enough range of consumer stocks, we will choose to buy, for entrepreneurs and small plates, we remain cautious approach, to find out the real core of the competition a reasonable valuation of long-term The difficulty of force enterprises is still small.

GF growth in domestic demand that a substantial adjustment in the market, the current market valuation is more reasonable, but the structural differentiation is still more obvious; in the next quarter, we are optimistic about the combination of high interest rate bank shares, for real estate industry, we believe that small, but slightly loose the possibility exists the possibility of loose in the 2012 comprehensive policy, especially for rigid demand to meet the relevant policies, after all, Chinas urbanization only chess in the Bureau, control and squeeze investment and speculative demand, meet consumer demand is the focus of policy should be, and real estate policy with less risk from future industry trends and valuation perspective, the leading real estate companies worthy of attention; down to the valuation is attractive enough range of consumption shares, we will choose to buy; for entrepreneurs and small plates, we remain cautious approach, because the sufficient reason not to intervene in terms of the valuation level or policy level.

, industry configuration: consumer banking are still favor robust configurations tone changed and

Table 1: open active partial stock funds in 2011 and fourth quarter of sector allocation CodeName of industryNet worth ratio

(%) Share of the market value of equity investments (%)The relative standard industry allocation ratio (%)The fourth quarterThree quarters ofIncrease or decreaseAAgriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery0.881.141.050.090.26BExtractive industries3.474.486.32-1.84-15.27CManufacturing39.2150.5752.77-2.2016.93C0Food, beverages10.2613.2311.991.248.13C1Textiles, clothing, fur1.161.491.400.090.42C2Wood, furniture0.070.090.16-0.08-0.01C3Paper, printing0.240.310.280.03-0.21C4Petroleum, chemical, plastic, plastic3.134.044.79-0.750.29C5Electronic2.493.213.33-0.120.81C6Metal and nonmetal2.573.325.50-2.18-3.17C7Machinery, equipment, instrumentation11.4614.7715.48-0.705.04C8Medicine, biological products7.519.699.350.335.78C99Other manufacturing0.320.420.47-0.060.16DElectricity, gas and water production and supply1.301.681.030.64-1.20EBuilding industry2.042.632.66-0.030.78FTransportation, warehousing1.461.891.690.20-1.87GIT industry5.687.327.000.323.68HWholesale and retail trade5.236.757.22-0.473.79IFinance and Insurance9.3312.0310.002.04-11.96JReal estate4.896.315.570.742.76KSocial Services2.443.142.490.661.97LCommunication and cultural industries0.831.070.820.240.55MComprehensive0.771.001.38-0.38-0.44

data sources: the Wind all the Paul Fund Research Center

the fourth quarter of 2011, accounted for from the industry point of view, the stock market value of investments accounted for the configuration fund a higher proportion of the industry is the instrument of machinery and equipment (14.77%), food and beverages (13.23%), finance and insurance (12.03%), Pharmaceutical and Biological Products (9.69%), the IT industry (7.32%), wholesale and retail trade (6.75%). Main holdings of financial and insurance sector (+2.04), food and beverages (+1.24%), real estate (0.74 percent), social services (+0.66%), electricity, gas and water production and supply industry (0.64%); The main holdings of the metal and nonmetal (-2.18%), extractive industries (-1.84%), Petrochemicals (-0.75%), Machinery (-0.70%). Continuation of the structure of three quarterly disclosure to the proportion of relative standard industry configuration (overweight / low distribution), the main ultra with a food and beverage, pharmaceutical and biological products, machinery and equipment, instrumentation, wholesale and retail trade, information technology industry; mainly with low extractive industries, finance and insurance industry, metal and nonmetal.

held from the Fund in the fourth quarter as a whole industry configuration and changes in circumstances can be found, funds in the fourth quarter and the next period of time on the defensive plates of the inter-cycle consumption, underestimate the value of the financial sector still has a clear preference for and further reduce the configuration of the strong cyclical sectors of the mining industry, metal and nonmetal. On the whole, "stable growth" is still the main investment ideas, revealing the mentality of "safe" investment, reflecting the fund entrenched in the domestic and international economic situation is grim background caution, cross-cycle is to seek steady growth in the market seeking to underestimate the value of blue-chip sector valuations return to the history of the bottom of the high margin of safety for asylum, is still the present organization the most important one focal point.

three stock configuration: banking, food and beverage most favored

Table 2: Open initiative partial stock funds before the 2011 Four Seasons reported 20 Awkwardness securities code Name hold the fund number holding a total market capitalization (million) holdings total (million shares) position changes (million shares) holdings accounting for float market capitalization (%) 600519.SHGuizhou Maotai151.002,523,520.5213054.941401.8112.57600036.SHChina Merchants Bank (Confucius News)138.001,688,856.65142,279.4118275.608.05000858.SZWuliangye123.001,354,735.9741302.93-4376.7210.88600887.SHErie shares99.001,216,851.7159562.009227.3737.52600406.SHNARI58.00932,934.3929901.743305.0128.47600016.SHMinsheng Bank88.00927,963.09157,548.9121965.196.98601318.SHChina Ping An (Confucius News)62.00841,007.3424419.493684.215.10601166.SHIndustrial Bank (Confucius News)61.00835,772.2566754.97-128.526.19000568.SZLuzhou62.00811,008.9421742.873451.3930.40000651.SZGree Electric Appliances44.00785,828.5545449.89-877.4616.35600000.SHShanghai Pudong Development Bank (Confucius News)64.00780,664.9791951.126233.276.16000002.SZVanke A58.00730,505.8097791.943308.5310.12000895.SZShuanghui Development67.00723,535.1410343.60695.6017.07600048.SHPoly Real Estate (Confucius News)68.00693,301.9969330.203900.9111.87000423.SZDong EE Jiao71.00680,256.5715838.343998.0024.23002304.SZYanghe32.00605,256.754693.00862.5911.46601601.SHChina Pacific Insurance59.00533,265.6227759.79396.624.47600050.SHChina Unicom (Confucius News)38.00518,876.6499022.26-1938.304.67600276.SHHengrui Medicine36.00501,689.2017041.071256.7715.21600518.SHU.S. pharmaceutical36.00461,751.3641154.31-6625.0218.72

data sources: the Wind all the Paul Fund Research Center Four Seasons reported the top ten of the

Fund holdings of stocks GD, China CSR, Minsheng Bank, China Merchants Bank, China CNR, OCT A China Hydropower, Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway, the new lake treasure, Datong-Qinhuangdao railway industry distribution in the water production and supply of electricity, gas, mechanical equipment, instrumentation, finance and insurance, real estate, construction, transportation and warehousing industry. The top ten holdings of individual stocks is the Agricultural Bank of China, Anhui Conch Cement, China State Construction the Suning (Confucius News), Midea, China Southern Airlines (Confucius News), chemistry, SAIC, CITIC Securities (Confucius News), ZTE (Confucius News), the industry distribution in the finance and insurance, metal and nonmetal, construction, wholesale and retail trade, mechanical equipment, instrumentation, transportation and warehousing industry, social services, the IT industry.